The 100% Guaranteed NFL Mock Draft

Every single pick in this Round 1 NFL Mock is correct.

The 2024 NFL Draft is finally here! I love the draft because it represents hope. Every guy is a great fit for your team and going to be ready to compete at the NFL level tomorrow.

The instantaneous grades are amusing to absurd. You need at least 3 years to properly evaluate a draft class. Instead the grades are handed out as gospel in real time by the NFL Draft Industrial Complex. Eisenhower tried to warn us.

But I’m as guilty as anyone of devouring mock drafts, measureables, and scouting reports online. The political polling industry is more trustworthy these days.

I try to figure out which college players are going to be keystones to the next Super Bowl championship roster in Green Bay. Disappointed when we don’t take them. Devastated if they end up with a division rival. Elated in the rare instance they land at 1265 Lombardi. We’re looking for younger, athletic outliers (even by NFL standards), at premium positions early for Green Bay.

Am I right about any of this conjecture? No of course not. I’m wrong along with everyone else. But here it is. My projection for the 1st round of the 2024 NFL Draft. I’m trying to match prospect and team but at a minimum will feel good if I can match position and team. I definitely don’t know more than anyone else. But I can’t be THAT much worse than the professional media which is already publishing 2025 draft content.

1. Chicago Bears- Caleb Williams, QB, USC. A law school friend saw Williams lose at Oregon last fall and regretfully informed me that I should be a little concerned. Even the Chicago Bears can’t screw this up. The only pick I’m actually confident in.

2. Washington Commanders- Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU: I would take Drake Maye but I’m buying the smoke Washington wants Daniel’s mobility for its offense. Its a mistake, they’ll RGIII him and he’ll get hurt too much, but should be entertaining.

3. TRADE: Minnesota Vikings- Drake Maye, QB, UNC: Vikings have Josh McCown on staff who coached Maye in high school. The Patriots aren’t a QB away from competing in the AFC East so they’ll slide back to #11 and pick up some picks.

4. Arizona Cardinals- Marvin Harrison Jr, WR, TOSU: Son of the legendary Colts WR he would have gone in the top5 in any of the last 3 drafts. An easy pick for Arizona. There’s never been four QBs in a row taken to start a draft and it won’t be here because of this sitter of a pick for the Cardinals

5. Los Angeles Chargers- Joe Alt, LT, Notre Dame: Vikings jump at the chance to take Maye so LAC sticks and picks to build up a strong OL to protect its investment at Justin Herbert. Chargers would have a trio of Top20 picks on the OL in addition to high priced free agent Corey Linsley.

6. New York Giants- JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan: Our first surprise of the draft. The NYG can get out from Daniel Jones’ horrendous contract in a year. McCarthy is only 21, and they can let him sit for a year before taking over in 2025.

7. Tennessee Titans- Olu Fashanu, LT, Penn State: The NFL gotta stop overthinking it. Titans take a guy who might have been the top OL selected a year ago had he declared. Shores up the left side of the line so they can see what they have in Will Levis (SPOILER: not much).

8. New York Jets- Malik Nabers, WR, LSU: GM Aaron Rodgers engineers a trade to move up. Atlanta can get the defender they want at #10 so happy to slide back picking up a 3rd in the process. NYJ know Nabers isn’t getting past the Bears so they jump up and take the explosive WR out of LSU to pair him with Garrett Wilson since Mike Williams and Allen Lazard ain’t it as the #2 WR in New York.

9. Las Vegas Raiders- Michael Pennix, QB, UW: Raiders outbid the divisional rival Broncos for Pennix. They need a long term answer at QB. After two healthy seasons at UW (following a mess of injuries at Indiana) Pennix steps in ready to win from day one. Bears entered the draft with only four picks so happy to slide back for extra assets.

10. Atlanta Falcons- Byron Murphy DT, Texas: A mild surprise, instead of taking an Edge rusher, the Falcons select the top interior DL in the draft to build out that front. Grady Jarrett has a dead cap of just over $4M in 2025 so the Falcons get younger at the position looking ahead.

11. New England Patriots- Rome Odunze, WR, UW: Pats don’t take a QB here but instead the 3rd best WR in the class. The roster is devoid of many building blocks but at least they have an alpha in the WR room in Odunze

12. Denver Broncos- Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama: All Bama in the secondary now with Pat Surtain on one side and Arnold on the other. With Mahomes, Herbert, and now Pennix in the division the Broncos need corners.

13. Chicago Bears- Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama: Bears invested in Montez Sweat (hence the lack of draft capital) last year. They add a good speed rusher to pair with Sweat to rectify one of the most glaring weaknesses on defense.

14. New Orleans Saints- JC Latham, OT, Alabama: Massive OT prospect. With problems at both ends of the OL they grab Latham here a bit earlier than the projection in order to solve one of the OT spots.

15. Indianapolis Colts- Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo: Colts aren’t afraid to go to a mid major to take Mitchell. He might be the top corner in the draft. It’s him or Arnold. Terrific athlete something Indy values more than most.

16. Philadelphia Eagles- Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia: Eagles swoop in and per usual take a Georgia Bulldog. Bowers is widely regarded as a top 5 talent in this draft but slides a bit. Eagles won the Super Bowl with a 2headed monster at TE with Dallas Goedert (likely done after 2025 in Philly) and Zach Ertz. Try to recreate that with Bowers to stop his fall.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars- Taliese Fuaga, OL Oregon State: A solid offensive line pick for Jacksonville as it prepares to extend Trevor Lawrence. After spending wildly in free agency at WR the last couple seasons its time to invest up front.

18. Cincinnati Bengals- Troy Fautanu, OL, UW: Not sure if he’s an OT or an OG but either way the Bengals have neglected the protection for Joe Burrow too much. They take Fautanu here to fit somewhere up front to stop the protection issues.

19. Buffalo Bills- Brian Thomas Jr, WR, LSU: Bills can’t wait any longer to find a replacement for Stefon Diggs. That WR depth chart in Buffalo is bleak. Rams are always happy to slide around the board and collect picks. They haven’t made a first round pick since 2016 so what’s a waiting a few more picks in 2024?

20. Pittsburgh Steelers- Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia: They took his teammate last year in the 1st round. Steelers complete the Bulldogs bookends and protect Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, or whoever it is back there playing QB this season.

21. Miami Dolphins- Graham Barton, OL, Duke: 5 position versatility. One of the two guys I hope ends up in GB. Dolphins lost a lot in free agency on the interior. Barton would be a great fit to protect Tua and keep the Dolphins offense flying high.

22. Green Bay Packers- Cooper Dejean, S, Iowa: He can play S, CB, or return kicks. GB doesn’t want to risk him getting snapped up so needing help in the secondary at multiple positions they trade up 3 and take a guy who can help in multiple positions.

23. New England Patriots- Bo Nix, QB, Oregon: For sure a reach but that 5th year QB option is so valuable. Patriots take a chance on Nix and expect him to be ready to open the season for them given Nix’s lengthy starting experience in college.

24. Dallas Cowboys- Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma: Cowboys felt like they hit in 2022 on a hyper athletic OL who needed more experience in Tyler Smith. They’d prefer to leave Smith at LG so they add Guyton to shore up the line. Critical season for Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott to get things out of neutral in Dallas. Jerry Jones will be watching as he is known to do

    

25. Seattle Seahawks- Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA: By talent and production should have gone much higher than this. But his frightening medical history including retiring from football at UW means he is still around. The Seahawks trust its doctors to clear Latu and get him on the field to pair well with what they have already in the Front7.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State: Different than the guy picked in front of him, Robinson is the speed rusher that Tampa Bay has liked in the past. Tampa needs some more juice in the pass rush and Robinson will provide it.

27. Arizona Cardinals- Jared Verse, Edge, FSU: Falls behind other pass rushers because of his age. But a talented player who the Cardinals are happy to scoop up in a defensive front that is relying on too many free agents right now.

28. Los Angeles Rams- Johnny Newton, DL, Illinois: Not an Aaron Donald replacement, nobody is, but a tad undersized gap swimming DL still. Good start for LAR as its tries to figure out what it will be without one of the greatest defensive players of all time on the roster anymore.

29. Detroit Lions- Darius Robinson, DL, Missouri: Just feels like a Dan Campbell Detroit Lions pick. High motor player who can line up in a variety of places on the defensive line. Would help alleviate some of the attention Aidan Hutchinson will continue to draw.

30. Baltimore Ravens- Kool Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama: Ozzie Newsome isn’t there anymore but the Ravens still love its Crimson Tide players. Marlon Humphrey is slowing down and there is little depth in the secondary. Getting out of the AFC means some combination of Josh Allen, Pat Mahomes, Joe Burrow. Ravens as always happy to wait and let a super talented player who should have been gone by now fall into its lap.

31. San Fransisco 49ers- Jordan Morgan, OL, Arizona: Not clear if he can play OT but the 49ers showed in its playoff run its weak up front beyond Trent Williams. Williams will turn 36 before the season starts. Turnovers and the rest of the OL is why the 49ers aren’t picking 32nd. Morgan can help improve one of those things.

32. Kansas City Chiefs- Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas: Not saying I’d do this (I’d take Ladd McCokney) but KC bets on upside here. Mitchell’s size, strength, speed is too much for KC to pass up. Mr. Pfizer is getting older, Rashee Rice is facing legal issues, and the rest of the KC pass catchers is a whole lot of nope.